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Forget China, Apple's Growth in India is the Key to the Future

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Shares of Apple (AAPL - Free Report) were down about 1% through the morning trading hours Wednesday after the company reported mixed second-quarter results. Although the tech behemoth surpassed estimates on both the top and bottom lines, investors were concerned about slumping revenues in several key segments.

For one, Apple reported iPhone sales of 50.8 million units in the quarter. This was a 1% drop from the prior-year period, and it missed our consensus estimate of 51.2 million units. The iPhone accounts for about 60% of Apple’s revenue, and the company really doesn’t currently have a way to make up for sluggish performance in this segment (also read: Apple Misses Q2 iPhone Sales Estimates, 50.8 Million Units Sold).

Another point of concern in Apple’s report was its performance in China. Apple saw sales of $10.7 billion in the region this quarter, marking a 14% decline from last year. What’s worse, year-over-year comparisons should have been a bit more favorable since Apple reported a 26% decline in the second quarter of 2016.

So what gives? Why is Apple struggling in one of the largest consumer goods markets in the world?

Well, Apple chief executive Tim Cook placed some of the blame on currency headwinds, telling investors on the company’s earnings call that “about a third” of the decline in China was attributable to foreign exchange rates.

But the real problem for Apple in the region is that its products are losing popularity. Chinese competitors like Oppo and Vivo are growing at an incredible rate because they can offer similar devices at much lower prices, and government regulators have displayed some favoritism towards these domestic companies along the way.

While Apple was struggling in China throughout 2016, Oppo recorded 122% growth in smartphone sales in the country, doubling its market share to 16.8%. Apple’s market share in China was down to about 10% by the end of the year.

So what can Apple do to fix its China problem? Simple, forget about it.

Several years ago, China’s upstart middle class was targeted as the next key market for consumer electronics. Industry giants like Apple were able to quickly swoop in, and growth in the country was a major overall growth driver for the brand.

But now that domestic manufacturers have caught up, Apple needs to move on to the next major growth market before it’s too late.

The good news for faithful Apple investors is that it looks like the company is already getting out ahead on this.

While there’s probably some room to debate what the number one up-and-coming market is, there’s no denying the amount of untapped potential in India—and it looks like Apple realizes that too.

“We set a new March quarter record for India, where revenue grew by strong double digits. We continue to strengthen our local presence across the entire ecosystem, and we're very optimistic about our future,” Cook said.

India has a population of more than 1.3 billion, which means it’s clearly a huge market for any company. But the country has been quickly improving its 4G infrastructure, and that means the door is open for smartphone makers like Apple.

“The 4G network investment really began rolling in a significant way toward the last quarter of last year. But they're moving at a speed that I have not seen in any other country in the world once they were started, and it is truly impressive,” Cook added.

I’m going to attempt to make a pretty ridiculous analogy here, so bear with me.

Let’s say Apple, India, and China are all high-school kids. Apple and China dated, and man did it seem like they loved each other. Eventually though, they grew apart. China was into this new guy named Oppo, and things weren’t the same. It’s cool though, Apple and China are still friends. They mean a lot to each other, so it’s important for them to maintain a healthy relationship.

India and Apple though—well, things are really heating up between the two of them. They’ve been on a few dates now and it looks like they’re quite compatible.

It’s not time for Apple to forget about China altogether, but it is time for the company to starting shifting toward the future. India is that future.

Want more stock market analysis from this author? Make sure to follow @Ryan_McQueeney on Twitter!

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